Philadelphia Fed predicts economic growth for Maine over the next 6 months

FROM the Philadelphia Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the leading indexes for the 50 states for July 2014. The indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes (also released by the Bank). Forty-five state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, while five are projected to decrease. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for its U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 1.6 percent over the next six months.

(click image to enlarge)

7-14 leading index

The Leading Index for each state:

[P]redicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

 For more on the coincident index.

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John Haskell

About John Haskell

John graduated from the University of Southern Maine with a degree in Political Science, and from the University of Maine School of Law. He has worked in both the public and private sectors, and currently, works with a small business services company in the Mid-Coast area.